The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) are headed to D.C. this week for a showdown against the Washington Commanders (7-2), fresh off their bye, well-rested and just a bit healthier than they were previously. It will be an interesting matchup on both sides with Pittsburgh sitting as a 2.5-point road underdog and each of these teams ranking top-five in the league in point differential.
Here are a few of our favorite Steelers-Commanders player props to consider for Week 10.
Russell Wilson OVER 211.5 passing yards (-113)
We’ve got an admittedly small sample size of work from Russell Wilson, but he’s been incredibly efficient with his opportunities. He’s averaging a career-high 9.5 yards per pass attempt and a 111.9 passer rating through two weeks. While the Commanders don’t look like a great matchup on paper, allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (183.3), it’s a stat that should be contextualized with the quality (or lack thereof) of the opponents they’ve faced.
Through their first nine games, this defense has faced Daniel Jones twice, with other games against Deshaun Watson, Andy Dalton and Caleb Williams. In three matchups against more proficient passers — Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield — the secondary allowed 324, 323 and 289 passing yards respectively. Those three QBs averaged a 132.1 passer rating, a 77.7% completion rate, throwing 8 total touchdowns and one interception) with a 10.0 pass yards per attempt average. With Russell Wilson coming off a bye and another week out from a calf injury that delayed the start of his season, it stands to reason that this should be a spot he can take advantage of. Washington’s starting cornerbacks, Mike Sainristil, Benjamin St. Juste and Noah Igbinoghene, comprise a relatively undersized group that could fall victim to the George Pickens-Russell Wilson moon ball in a big way.
Najee Harris OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-113)
The Pittsburgh Steelers finally found their run game after a slow start to the year, with Harris on a three-game streak of 100+ rushing yards. He’s on pace to have the most efficient season of his career, averaging 4.4 yards per attempt (a career-high), ranked top-five in missed forced tackle rate (26%) while holding the seventh-lowest stuffed run rate among RBs with 100+ attempts.
The Commanders will provide a perfect opportunity to keep Harris’ recent success rolling, too. Their defense is allowing the second-highest yards per carry average in the league this year (5.1), giving up the fourth-most rushing yards per game (143). Washington’s allowed 41 rush attempts to go for 10+ rushing yards this year (second-most), while Harris has totaled 11 such plays over his past three games.
Jayden Daniels UNDER 43.5 rushing yards (-113)
Daniels has been one of the most explosive rushing quarterbacks in the league as a rookie, averaging 51.0 yards (9.11 attempts) per game for 5.6 yards per carry. This week, however, he’ll face a Steelers defense that has limited proficient rushing quarterbacks this season. They’ve held runners Bo Nix, Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones — three players ranked inside the top seven among QBs in total rushing yards — to just 50 rushing yards combined. The Steelers are giving up a league-low -0.45 EPA per carry to opposing QBs while allowing the ninth-lowest yards per carry average.
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