The Pittsburgh Steelers’ pass attack has been trending up under QB1 Russell Wilson. Even in a down week for the veteran riddled with inconsistencies and inaccuracy in Week 10, he managed three passing touchdowns and a crucial offsides draw of the Washington Commanders to secure the win.
However successful they’ve been in Wilson’s three weeks as a starter, though, they haven’t unlocked one key area of the field — the intermediate passing game.
Through three weeks, here’s a breakdown of Wilson’s passing by targeted depth:
Behind the LOS: 11 attempts, 8 completions for 67 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. 72.7% completion rate, 88.1 NFL passer rating.
1-9 yards: 39 attempts, 28 completions for 265 passing yards, 2 TD, 0 INT. 71.8% completion rate, 107.3 NFL passer rating.
10-19 yards: 12 attempts, 6 completions for 144 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. 50% completion rate, 121.5 NFL passer rating.
20+ yards: 20 attempts, 8 completions for 261 passing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT. 53.3% completion rate, 110.4 passer rating.
The biggest number that stands out here? 12 attempts of 10-19 yards from Wilson in comparison to his 20 attempts of 20+ air yards.
There’s no doubt that Wilson is a great deep passer. Through three games this season, he ranks seventh in NFL passer rating (110.4) on such throws, while ranking fourth in adjusted completion percentage (53.3%) and second in pass yards per attempt (17.4). However, it’s no secret that deep pass attempts — regardless of who is throwing them and how good they are at it — are low-probability throws. What they don’t do, however, is consistently move the chains.
In Week 10 alone, Wilson had just 8 attempts of 20+ passing yards converting three first downs — in comparison to his 2 attempts of 10-19 yards. Calvin Austin III (26%), Van Jefferson (24.9%) and George Pickens (24.7%) each rank inside the top 12 for deep route rate run among WRs with 20 or more targets on the year. Consider those averages in comparison to the league average of 16.5%, and you might better understand what leads to some of the inconsistencies.
The passing attack is undoubtedly an improved one, but it does feel rather “all or nothing” at this point. The potential loss of third-year WR Calvin Austin III — who exited Week 10 with a head injury — doesn’t do much to help the matter, either, currently leading the team with 49 intermediate passing yards from Wilson through three games. There’s also George Pickens, of course, who does seem to excel on opportunities out of the slot — could that be the secret to unlocking the intermediate passing game?
How can the Steelers establish that consistency so every play isn’t a dump-off screen or long bomb down the field? What are they missing?
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