The Steelers host their bitter rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, this week. With a win, the Steeles will sit atop the AFC North. This feels like the most stakes a Steelers-Ravens tilt has held in a few years. Pittsburgh kicks off division play and can set the tone for a tough final two months with a win. How will they get there?
What to expect from the Ravens’ offense
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Rushing Y/G: 182.6 (1st)
Passing Y/G: 257.6 (3rd)
Points Per Game: 31.8 (1st)
RP: Simply put, the Ravens currently have the best offense in the NFL. This is something film bros, numbers nerds, and your average fan can mostly agree on — although there is a fair case for the Lions, depending on how you feel about Jared Goff. As of now, the Ravens have scored the most points, possess the best rushing attack and are third in passing offense. If analytics are your jam, they are first in overall offensive Expected Points Added (EPA), fourth in rushing EPA, and first in passing EPA by more than double the next-highest team. The Ravens rarely trail and have a diverse set of skill players to adjust their play style from game to game. Baltimore’s three losses this season have been by a combined 15 points. It’s safe to say the Ravens should provide the Steelers’ defense with one of its toughest tests all season.
I’m not shocking anyone by pointing out that Lamar Jackson is the straw that stirs the drink for this offense. Jackson trails only Joe Burrow in passing yards (2,669), is tied with Burrow and Baker Mayfield for most passing touchdowns (24), and also leads in passer rating (123.2) and EPA (112.8) by wide margins. He leads in yards per attempted pass (9.3), is seventh in completion percentage (69.1 percent), is one of the least sacked (13) quarterbacks in the league, and has only thrown two interceptions. He’s added 538 yards on the ground, with two touchdowns and 22 different rushes of 10-plus yards — tying him with Derrick Henry and trailing only Saquon Barkley and former Steeler James Conner. Moreso than any other QB in the league, Lamar is the engine behind his team’s offense.
Baltimore does a good job protecting him as well. Pressure reaches Jackson on average after 2.89 seconds, the third longest in the league. That’s allowed him to average the second-highest average time to throw in the league at 3.09 seconds. To make matters worse he’s frequently capable of doing things like this if a team isn’t disciplined in its pass rush plan:
Derrick Henry was the prized offseason acquisition for the Ravens and he is having a monster year. Henry has scored a touchdown in every game, and has 1,120 rushing yards (6.1 YPC) on the season with 14 total touchdowns.
The key for the Steelers will be finding a way to stop both Jackson and Henry on outside runs. The Ravens run outside the tackles on 58.9 percent of their rushing attempts. That’s in large part because quarterback options and scrambles are more likely to occur outside of the tackles, but also because Derrick Henry isn’t the traditional power back many take him for. That isn’t to say getting run over by Henry in the open field is a breeze, but he’s always thrived more in outside zone schemes that let him build up a head of steam.
In three games against the Steelers in his career, Henry has never rushed for more than 75 yards, but he did accomplish that twice. Stopping Henry early in his runs and keeping Lamar from bouncing outside, either as a runner or passer, will be critical for the Steelers. With Alex Highsmith missing the game, the Steelers will need to rely on Preston Smith and Nick Herbig to set the edge in his place. I’d also expect Pittsburgh to adopt a policy of playing the quarterback when the Ravens attempt to run read-option.
The Ravens bully opponents in the run game to create more manageable second and third downs. If Pittsburgh can limit Baltimore’s rushing to production earlier in downs, that forces Jackson to make more magic on third down. He often is up for the task, but Jackson is still human. Baltimore dominates opponents so often, and for multiple seasons now, that disrupting their rhythm is paramount. In Baltimore’s three losses, they’ve scored 24 points or fewer and Jackson appeared to grow frustrated the longer the Raven’s struggles continued against Vegas and Cleveland.
Stopping the Ravens' passing attack will be another complicated matter. Because of Jackson’s threat as a runner, the Steelers will have to commit someone in coverage to him. The Steelers typically don’t rush more than four, but BTSC’s Kyle Chrise recently pointed out the Steelers have had more success against Jackson when they send more pressure. The Steelers used a similar strategy last week against Jayden Daniels to great success.
The Ravens don’t have a prototypical X-receiver as their No. 1 target. Instead, they employ the diminutive but speedy and elusive Zay Flowers. Flowers is best in motion and Baltimore likes to manufacture touches for him through screens and speed out routes a handful of times a game. They’ll also send him deep on crossing routes, and he’s a threat to improvise his way into space on scramble drills. Flowers has 50 receptions for 688 yards and three touchdowns so far this season. The Steelers will need to be sound tacklers against him, as Flowers is currently ninth in the league with 340 yards after the catch, meaning roughly half (49.4 percent) of his yardage has come after the catch.
Steelers Prep:
Baltimore likes to get Zay Flowers in motion and target him on the perimeter or running crossers. There's a lot of screens and quick outs, but they'll have him on late developing routes for chunk plays as well pic.twitter.com/W73z8J1TCu
— Ryan Parish (@RyanParishmedia) November 14, 2024
Mark Andrews got off to a slow start this season but has come alive in recent weeks. He’s scored a touchdown in four of his last five games and remains a threat in the red zone.
Rashod Bateman is the Raven’s No. 2 receiver. He’s on pace for career highs in receptions, yardage and has already eclipsed his previous high for touchdowns in a season. He often is used as a sacrificial X-receiver, clearing out space for his teammates, but he’s become a more reliable weapon for Baltimore than in years past.
Diontae Johnson and Nelson Agoholor will rotate in for a few snaps as well, but neither have staked out a huge role in the offense. That’s in large part because Baltimore frequently plays in formations with multiple tight ends and/or a full back. We’ll likely see more of Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kolar, and Patrick Ricard than we will Johnson, though it’s worth noting Likely logged a limited practice on Wednesday. The Ravens also frequently play halfback Justice Hill, who the Steelers should be wary of on passing downs. Hill has snagged 27 passes for 272 yards on the year, scoring twice and converting a first down on 13 of those receptions.
And what about the defense?
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
Rushing Y/G: Stat 73.0 (1st)
Passing Y/G: 294.9 (32nd)
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.3 (25th)
RB: I rewatched the Ravens’ Week 10 game specifically for this segment. Despite giving up an ugly 34 points, I thought the Baltimore defense played better than the box score showed. It was a tough night, but a lot of it came down to Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase both playing out of their minds and the Bengals throwing a lot. Don’t believe me? Hear it from Mike Tomlin, instead:
Mike Tomlin addressed the #Ravens 32nd ranked pass defense
“When I turn the tape on, I don't see negligence. I see a group that's definitively up on people, and a lot of people are getting out of their personalities and are simply somewhat one-dimensional. … That's probably… pic.twitter.com/SNCNthaVFg
— Bobby Trosset (@bobbybaltim0re) November 12, 2024
Tomlin is right: The Ravens’ 32nd-ranked pass defense still has some excellent individual players on it, namely cornerback Marlon Humphrey, a former All Pro and three-time Pro Bowler, and safety Kyle Hamilton, who’s coming off a year where he earned both accolades. The Ravens’ secondary still presents some challenges despite its dismal numbers.
It is worth noting that Hamilton suffered an ankle injury last week, and his status for Week 11 is up in the air.
Tomlin is also right about circumstances. The Ravens are averaging the most second-half points allowed per game this season at 15.8. They generally play well in the first half but get thrown at a lot in the second.
2nd Half Points Per Game:
1. Ravens – 16.5
2. Eagles – 15.3
3. Steelers – 15.0
2nd Half Points Allowed Per Game:
1. Steelers – 6.1
2. Broncos – 7.1
3. Bills – 7.2
32. Ravens – 15.8
Steelers' defense will have a test but that stat doesn't bode well for the Ravens.
— Daniel Valente (@StatsGuyDaniel) November 13, 2024
Where Tomlin is being a little too kind is the “I don’t see guys out of place” comment. Baltimore has actually looked solid in man coverage, but they’ve been picked apart in zone this season, especially at inside linebacker.
A lot of Joe Burrow’s success on Thursday came from checkdowns and intermediate passes in the middle of the field. Chase's speed also made crossers and posts lethal as Baltimore’s safeties couldn’t get the right angle.
If you want to succeed against the Baltimore defense, targeting the middle of the field is the first step. That’s what makes this week such an interesting matchup as Russell Wilson famously doesn’t throw near the hashes much. Do the Steelers try to change it up?
If they do, it could be a big week for Calvin Austin III if healthy. As much talk as there’s been about boundary threats George Pickens and Mike Williams, Austin’s speed over the middle could give the Ravens fits, as could running back Jaylen Warren’s explosiveness as a checkdown option.
Although Baltimore’s struggles in pass defense have gotten a lot of press, they’ve been elite against the run, allowing the least rushing yards per game in the NFL.
A lot of that is due to what might be the most underrated defensive line in the league: Nnamdi Madubuike, Travis Jones, and Odafe Oweh may not be household names, but they’re all solid pass-rushers and a big, physical front against the run.
I have some dire news for offensive lines all around the #NFL, Nnamdi Madubuike, is all the way back!!!
THREE SACKS!!
TEN PRESSURES!!
89.5 PFF GRADE!!
This could be the catalyst the Baltimore Ravens’ defensive line needed! #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/RAsuwffZxn
— Nic Mason (@British_Raven19) November 13, 2024
The same goes for the Ravens’ linebacking corps, with Roquan Smith and Kyle Van Noy excelling near the line of scrimmage. Baltimore likes to bring them help as well, crowding the box with extra defenders. Sometimes it’ll be bigger defensive backs like Humphrey and Hamilton, who have great speed while still tackling physically.
Baltimore did this a lot against the Bengals: simulating pressures, blitzing aggressively, and even loading the box throughout the game-ending two-minute drill. Joe Burrow still managed a 428-yard day, but he was running for his life for much of it.
Cincinnati’s offensive line struggled on Thursday, Madubuike had a bit of a breakout game, and Baltimore has one of the lower blitz rates in the NFL — it’ll be interesting to see whether or not that blitz-heavy gameplan continues against Pittsburgh. I think it might, as the Steelers are still a run-first offense with an inexperienced O-line and a quarterback who’s lost much of his mobility.
While the Steelers offense still has the advantage in this game, it’s a tougher matchup than many realize. Baltimore’s strength is stopping the run game, Pittsburgh’s identity on offense, while the Ravens’ defensive weakness, the middle of the field passing game, is also the Steelers’ blind spot. Sunday’s game should be an interesting watch.
Does Baltimore’s offense or defense worry you more? What matchups will you be watching the closest on Sunday? Let us know in the comments below!
