Steelers Q&A: Mike Tomlin’s Coach of the Year case, red zone struggles, Hard Knocks, and more!

Home » Post Shortcodes » Steelers Q&A: Mike Tomlin’s Coach of the Year case, red zone struggles, Hard Knocks, and more!

Following a Week 11 win over the Baltimore Ravens, it’s never been better for the Steelers in 2024. But there’s still plenty more to look forward to: marquee matchups, AFC North rivalries, in-season Hard Knocks, and of course, the playoffs keep inching closer.

We dive into the upcoming schedule and much more in this week’s Read & React:

Is Mike Tomlin the 2024 Coach of the Year?

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

RP: As much as I think he deserves it, Tomlin has aged himself out of the demographic for Coach of the Year’s usual recipients. Coach of the Year is an extremely narrative-driven award, and is typically given to the newest coach on the team with the lowest expectations to pull off a playoff run. We have plenty of examples in recent years: Sean McVay (2017), Kevin Stefanski (2020), Brian Daboll (2022), Matt Nagy (2018) and Jim Harbaugh (2011) are all recent examples of first-year coaches to win the award.

However, the NFL is open to other narratives as winners. Mike Vrabel (2021) won the award for unexpectedly leading the Titans to the AFC’s top seed in his fourth year. Stefanski won the award again last year for surviving half a season of Deshaun Watson quarterback play to make the playoffs with old Joe Flacco. Jason Garrett (2016) went 13-3 with rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott leading the way, and John Harbaugh (2019) got the Lamar bump in Jackson’s first season as a starter. Bruce Arians got the award in 2012 with rookie Andrew Luck and for filling in admirably while Colts coach Chuck Pagano missed the season while battling leukemia. Arians won again in his second season in Arizona in 2014. Ron Rivera (2013, 2015) got the award twice for holding the head coach title during Cam Newton’s two best statistical seasons.

All that’s to say, the NFL rarely gives coaches like Tomlin the award. They like new faces, whether it’s the coaches themselves or coaches with young exciting quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are probably too talented to get the 2023 Stefanski treatment.

Does Tomlin deserve the award? Yes. Will he be the Coach of the Year in my personal record book? Certainly. Will the NFL agree? Call me jaded, but I think Dan Campbell (turning Detroit into a dominant team), Dan Quinn (Jayden Daniels and first year with a new team bump), Kevin O’Connell (winning with Sam Darnold), or Jonathan Gannon (low expectations) if the Cardinals win the NFC West, will better fit the narratives the award voters tend to favor, especially if the Steelers drop a game or two during their insane December schedule. I think Tomlin’s only chance is if the Steelers win out.

RB: Tomlin is definitely a top candidate. The Steelers’ history means a successful season is rarely the story it would be with other teams, but don’t forget just how low the expectations were for Pittsburgh ahead of the season. Tomlin finally got some winning quarterback play, and just like that, Pittsburgh is overperforming even the most optimistic of predictions.

The Steelers haven’t been anything revolutionary schematically, but they’ve been dominant in second halves, are top-10 in point differential, and are holding up well so far with a difficult schedule. If that keeps up, those are all strong arguments for Tomlin’s Coach of the Year case. Generally, the award goes to a coach whose team is succeeding more than expected, and that fits the 2024 Steelers.

But don’t forget that there’s some tough competition. Jim Harbaugh has the “rebuilding” Chargers at 7-3. Even Sean Payton is a candidate, with the 6-5 Broncos looking like a playoff team with rookie Bo Nix under center.

Moving to the NFC, Dan Quinn and rookie passer Jayden Daniels are turning the Commanders franchise around. Media darling Dan Campbell has the Lions looking like the best team in football, while Kevin O’Connell has led the Vikings to an 8-2 record with Sam Darnold as the starting quarterback. Jonathan Gannon has the oft-forgotten Cardinals in the current lead of the NFC West.

Tomlin’s work this season has been impressive, but he’s far from the only coach deserving of the award. I think AP voters will find a better story elsewhere and Tomlin won’t win, but he should certainly be in consideration — and plenty of the season is left for him to differentiate himself.

How can the Steelers fix their red zone struggles?

Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

RB: There are a lot of ways to answer this question. I’ll skip the most discussed point, the Justin Fields red zone package, as I already wrote about that following the game.

As I’ve seen some mention on BTSC already this week, red zone success can be volatile week to week, as can be seen in the play below:

It’s a great first-and-10 play call, with the Steelers setting up the screen well and leaving George Pickens with a one-on-one with the safety. That safety is Kyle Hamilton, so who knows if Pickens breaks free, but Pittsburgh is giving its most dynamic player an open field opportunity. No notes, Arthur Smith.

However, Pickens catches the ball, bumps into a blocking Pat Freiermuth, and the Ravens defense catches up to minimize the gain. You can’t scheme it up much better, but a few little things went wrong and sabotaged the play. That’s just life in the NFL and not necessarily something that needs an overhaul.

But later on, we see some systemic issues in the offense that go beyond the true-but-broad categories of “lots of pressure on the quarterback” and “the receivers aren’t getting open.” More specifically, the spacing needs work on some of the team’s route concepts.

Check out the first play that caught my eye. On the right side of the screen, you can see George Pickens and Calvin Austin III running some sort of corner/out combination. Look how close Austin is to Pickens, essentially taking away any chance of Wilson throwing to either because the defender covering Austin can easily make a play on both.

Sure, it’s third-and-eight here and Austin is running to where the sticks are, but it’s going to be tough for either to make a play here due to the spacing.

Think I’m being nitpicky? Here’s Pickens and Cordarrelle Patterson actually running into each other on a play that was mercifully stopped due to a false start.

Finally, here’s my favorite example, which results in the Steelers’ top three red zone targets running aimlessly into the same chunk of the end zone while Wilson is running for his life behind the line of scrimmage.

In the red zone, the defense is just too compressed — that was never going to work.

There’s plenty to fix in those clips, but for the spacing, it comes down to two main elements: some of these Arthur Smith red zone concepts need to be adjusted or just thrown out of the playbook. But there’s also sloppy route running in many cases that needs to be corrected — just look at how slow that last clip plays out. Brutal.

RP: I’m fully in agreement with Ryland that route spacing is probably the number one issue. Throw on any of the Steelers’ tape from this year and you’ll spot this issue in every game, and not just exclusively in the red zone. But since Bickley highlighted that so well, I’ll provide another, likely unpopular to bring up factor: Russell Wilson.

No, I’m not here to doom and gloom or hate on Wilson’s game. But there are things to consider here. No way around it, he hasn’t been good in the red zone this season. On passing attempts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, Russ has completed just 7-of-24 passes. That’s a completion percentage of just 29.2 percent. Focus that in to plays within the 10-yard line, and Russ is just 2-14 (14.3 percent). He’s turned four of those seven completions into touchdowns — and both of his completions inside the 10-yard line went for touchdowns — and his only interception came last week.

I’ve been saying all year that rooting for Wilson is a roller coaster with its fair share of frustrations. He’s a volatile quarterback, but he’s had a successful career because he’s got a knack for making just enough plays during the flow of the game to win more often than not. But efficient? Hardly.

The red zone is the perfect spot to appreciate the duality of the Russell Wilson experience. Of Wilson’s 340 career passing touchdowns, 225 (66.2 percent) have come from the red zone, and 143 (42 percent) have come from within the 10-yard line. He’s also been good about limiting turnovers, with just 14 career interceptions in the red zone. Of those interceptions, however, nine have come within the 10-yard line. Wilson also sees his completion percentage plummet in the red zone. In his career, Wilson is completing 64.7% of his passes. That plummets significantly inside the 20 (53.09%) and within the 10 (51.05%).

Some of that — but not all — has to do with where Wilson likes to throw the ball. As we’ve discussed previously, Wilson is like a modern NBA player: all threes and layups. In football terms, that means he thrives throwing deep shots down the sideline or short passes to the outside near the line of scrimmage.

When you get to the red zone, naturally, the field shrinks. There’s less space to cover vertically and the horizontal game comes more into play. Look at the graphs above and visualize the field. Quite simply, there is less space to work with in the red zone. If the quarterback relies mostly on the sideline, that means screens and contested catch balls are going to be something you rely on, and those are high-reward, low-efficiency endeavors. Wilson’s had a successful career finding them, but when they aren’t hitting it can be frustrating as hell to watch.

Let’s look at the interception against Baltimore, it highlights several things going wrong with the Steelers' execution in the red zone. For starters, look at the spacing as Bickley highlighted. Darnell Washington and Calvin Austin on the right and George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth on the left are running the exact same route combinations on opposite sides of the field. Look where those receivers are the moment Russ gets spooked in the pocket.

The outside routes do nothing to make it easy for Wilson. On both sides of the field, the targets are so close together, that any throw Wilson makes will likely be contested by at least one defender, if not two. Russ’ options here are to either:

a) Throw a corner fade to the diminutive Calvin Austin who isn’t a contested catch threat, and the throw would need to be perfect to protect the ball from the defender.

b) Low and away to Washington, which at best would be short of the end zone and at worst could be jumped by the defender.

c) Turn and throw across his body to Freiermuth and hope it doesn’t get jumped by the defender.

d) Throw an even crazier cross-body throw to Pickens who is fully turned and not headed to the back corner.

e) Check it down to the back who is short of the goal line and would have to get through two, maybe three, Ravens to score.

f) Scramble up the middle, hope to get past the defensive tackle and then have to deal with at least three other Ravens defenders between him and the goal line.

Arthur Smith didn’t make it easy on Wilson here, but Wilson is not without blame. Wilson has always been antsy in the pocket, it’s part of his backyard style of play. That’s a double-edged sword because it has allowed him to make numerous highlights in his career, but will also often make plays harder than they needed to be.

He’s one of the most sacked quarterbacks of all time for a reason. He will sometimes drift to a side of the pocket or outright scramble out of it when he doesn’t see a play developing right away. Sometimes it’s the right call, sometimes it kills a play unnecessarily. As a fan, you learn to live with it. Still, this was a bad play for Wilson who reacted to the pressure early, spun wildly, and then made the poor decision to put this ball in harm’s way.

I intend to do a more extensive film room look at Russ and the Steelers’ red zone issues following the Thursday night game against Cleveland, so keep your eyes out for that. For now, I’ll conclude my answer by summarizing: Arthur Smith needs to work on the spacing of his red zone route concepts, and Russ needs to make quicker decisions. The red zone efficiency almost can’t get worse than it has been statistically, but I do think it can get better. There’s still time for the Steelers to figure it out before the playoffs.

Is Thursday night versus the Browns a trap game?

Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

RB: With the Browns being the hated rival they are and a mini bye week following the Thursday night game, I have a hard time believing the Steelers are going to overlook this one.

However, while Pittsburgh is clearly the better team, a win is far from guaranteed. It’s a short week, an away game, and directly following a physical matchup against the Ravens. Plus, the weather forecast is doing its best to guarantee another ugly edition of Thursday Night Football.

Beyond that, parity is the name of the game in the NFL — the Browns might’ve lost by 21 to the Saints on Sunday, but they also recently beat Baltimore and gave the Eagles and Bengals a run for their money. Oh yeah, Steelers-Browns is another heated AFC North rivalry and Cleveland has had some flashes this season with Jameis Winston at quarterback.

The Steelers know this. It’s going to be a tough game, but not a trap.

RP: I don’t believe so, if only because I think the short week negates that. I know a trap game is technically any unexpected loss, but to me, a trap game has always symbolized a game where you look past your opponent to a game in the future. The Steelers are a savvy enough team not to underestimate the voodoo that is AFC North Football™. Cleveland is a more talented team than their record suggests and Jameis Winston has their offense moving the ball better than they were under Deshaun Watson. If the Steelers drop this one, I think I’d chalk it up to having only three days of rest and preparation more than “overlooking” a division rival.

The official trailer for Hard Knocks: In Season with the AFC North has dropped. Who do you think will be the star of the series for the Steelers?

Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Stay tuned for a special Read & React Hard Knocks podcast following Dec. 3 — we’re trying something new!

RP: I expect Tomlin and Russell Wilson to get most of the early focus, but that doesn’t necessarily make a Hard Knocks star. I’m personally most excited for DeShon Elliott and Patrick Queen ahead of the Ravens game. The trailer showed clips from the Giants game, so I have to imagine we get something from the first Steelers-Ravens of the season. And of course, with someone as unique as George Pickens on the squad, I’m curious to see how much access the Steelers give HBO to their young receiver.

RB: I’ve recently become a huge fan of Russell Wilson’s pregame interviews. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen someone so clearly “locked in” in my life. It’s always a fast-paced string of football platitudes delivered like a Madden career mode voice actor who left the oven on at home.

“Calm as can be. Ready to go. Neutral, man. Ready to go win it. Let’s go get it.” (Abruptly leaves).

Wilson always brilliantly toes the line between endearing authenticity and mindless coach speak — it never fails to crack me up. And it also helps that he’s a legitimately good dude as well.

Wilson is the quarterback of the current first-place AFC North team, and he hasn’t exactly been media shy throughout his career — you bet he’s going to be featured a lot on Hard Knocks. Personally, I can’t wait to see more of late-career renaissance Russ: his work with the team, his work with the community, and of course, those instant-classic sound bites:

Truthfully though, I’m hoping the star of the show is a player absolutely no one expects — maybe, say, Matt Sokol was a genius comedian this whole time and we just won’t know until Hard Knocks airs.

Join in on Steelers R&R by sharing your takes on this week’s topics. Has Mike Tomlin been the NFL’s best coach this year? Can the Steelers improve their red zone efficiency? Are you looking forward to Hard Knocks? Let us know in the comments! Feel free to pitch future questions in the comment section or on Twitter/X: tag @_Ryland_B or @RyanParishMedia.


Source link