The Pittsburgh Steelers got their biggest priority of the offseason done this week, signing T.J. Watt to a record-breaking three-year, $123 million deal that includes $108 million fully guaranteed at signing.

Both figures eclipsed the previous top figures held by Cleveland Browns star Myles Garrett and San Francisco 49ers star Nick Bosa, respectively. While there were trade rumors with teams interested in Watt, it was clear that the Steelers wanted to get a deal done, and that came to fruition ahead of training camp.

Watt’s accolades gave him a strong case to be the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL; he’s a Defensive Player of the Year, four-time First-Team All-Pro, and seven-time Pro Bowler since being drafted in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft.

He has also led the NFL in sacks (73.5) since 2020, while ranking second in tackles for loss (56) in that timeframe.

Earlier this offseason, we projected what a Watt contract could look like. Let’s see if the record-breaking deal surpassed those expectations.

Comparing the T.J. Watt contract projection to his actual contract

Back in my last piece, I mentioned how a three-year deal seemed realistic for both sides, giving Watt an option to hit the market for a final deal, while giving the Steelers some flexibility on the backend.

Still, I expected Watt to become the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL, while also securing a strong guarantee structure, as he broke the market back in 2022 with three fully guaranteed years.

Ultimately, I projected a three-year, $120.75 million deal with $103 million in guarantees. The $40.25 million per year figure exceeded Garrett’s number as the highest-paid defensive player.

However, to become the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL, Watt would have to exceed JaMarr Chase’s $40.25 million average, which I didn’t account for.

So, it makes sense that Watt got a deal averaging $41 million per year, while the guarantees were slightly higher at $108 million. Just like his previous deal, Watt seems to be getting three fully guaranteed years once again ($40 million signing bonus + $4 million 2025 salary + $32 million 2026 salary + $32 million 2027 salary).

Adding on his $21.05 million salary that was previously there for the 2025 season, Watt is now in Pittsburgh for the next four years for $144.05 million.

According to Spotrac, Watt will have cap hits of $42 million in both 2026 and 2027 after a $23.7 million cap hit in 2025. There is a potential out in the contract before the final season.

How strong is the T.J. Watt Steelers contract

This is certainly a strong deal for Watt, who broke the two biggest barriers: average annual value and guaranteed money at signing.

Watt’s $41 million-per-year salary tops the non-quarterback market now, while his $108 million guaranteed at signing easily passed Nick Bosa’s previous record of $88 million. To put matters into perspective, Watt’s guaranteed money at signing is more than Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, and Tua Tagovailoa.

Still, it’s good for the Steelers to get this deal done before some of the other major contracts expected to occur in the near future, namely Micah Parsons’s contract with the Dallas Cowboys.