For the Pittsburgh Steelers, the biggest storyline currently isn’t the signing of Aaron Rodgers. Or a focus on the 2025 season.

Instead, it’s the holdout of star outside linebacker T.J. Watt, who is searching for a new contract extension. Watt is in the final year of a four-year, $112 million extension he received at the end of his rookie deal. He currently has no guaranteed money remaining, and his salary for the upcoming year is slated at $21.05 million.

Watt’s pedigree is unquestioned; he’s a Defensive Player of the Year, four-time First-Team All-Pro, and seven-time Pro Bowler since being drafted in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft.

He’s also been in this situation with the Steelers before, signing his four-year extension just days before the 2022 NFL season started, and has made his stance firm by staying away from the team during mandatory minicamp.

However, head coach Mike Tomlin is optimistic about a deal coming into place, only raising questions on when exactly that will be.

​​“I’m not going to get into speculation there,” Tomlin said about a potential Watt deal this week. “You guys know what negotiations is about. I’m optimistic we’re going to get things done because we got two sides that want things done. When that’s going to occur, I don’t know.”

With training camp coming up at the end of July, let’s break down what a potential Watt deal could look like as the star enters his age-31 season.

T.J. Watt comparable contract numbers

The biggest deal for a defensive lineman this offseason was the Cleveland Browns extending Myles Garrett on a four-year, $160 million deal. That was added to the two years and $44.795 million remaining on his contract, totaling a value of six years and $204.795 million.

Watt has just one year and $21.05 million left on his deal. He’s also over a year older than Garrett, but still will demand similar, if not more, money on this next extension.

There’ve been three major outside linebacker/defensive line extensions this offseason: Garrett (four years, $160 million), Danielle Hunter (one year, $35.6 million), and Maxx Crosby (three years, $106.5 million). I expect Watt to fall in that category.

Garrett’s deal is obviously the most groundbreaking, but Nick Bosa currently leads the way with $88 million in guarantees at signing. Watt is second there at $80 million, stemming from his current four-year deal.

Of course, contract structures have differed, with bonuses and other guarantees allowing for more flexibility on both sides, but that is another number to monitor in this deal.

Crosby’s deal could be one to monitor closely. While he got three years and $106.5 million, the Raiders star got $91.5 million in total guarantees, nearly 86 percent of the overall value. He also got $62.5 million guaranteed at signing, with the third year’s compensation fully guaranteed by the third league day of 2026.

Projecting a new contract for T.J. Watt

Given his age, I think Watt could look for a three-year deal to tack on to the final year of his contract. However, he’s likely looking to break the market, just as he did in 2022. When he signed his four-year, $112.5 million deal, Watt became the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL.

He also got three years fully guaranteed, which was groundbreaking, as the Steelers rarely guaranteed deals past the first year. He earned a hefty $35 million signing bonus, and got the largest guaranteed money at signing figure at $80 million.

I think percentages will be big in Watt’s deal, given that a three-year deal seems more realistic.

For the average value, Garrett’s deal at $40 million per year seems like a good range. The Crosby number of nearly 86 percent of the contract being guaranteed also seems like a number to watch.

Watt could have that compensated with three years guaranteed, plus another hefty signing bonus. And the Steelers would have four years total, adding the current year to his deal, to help with structure.

Projection: 3 years, $120.75 million, $103 million in total guarantees